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☆ Breaking down the market sell-off and odds this 5% pullback turns into a 10% correction
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Hard-to-handicap geopolitical conflict never helps, even if it rarely serves as the key swing factor in a market trend. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year And then there was simply the elevated valuation and over-optimistic sentiment that had built up over that five-month, 28% rally that culminated at the end of March. Over the long span of time, about 40% of all 5% market pullbacks deepened into full 10% corrections. A 10%-ish correction from the S & P 500 high of 5254 would pull the index down below 4800, the former record high from early 2022, and so would be a test of the first-quarter breakout. Last week's 3% decline took the index back to Feb 21 and thereby closed the "Nvidia gap," the 100-point S & P 500 pop the day after Nvidia's blowout fourth-quarter earnings report.

Persons: Warren Pies, Jerome Powell Organizations: Nasdaq, 3Fourteen, Nvidia, Big Tech, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Silicon

☆ The spike in VIX this month hasn't been unexpected, says CBOE's Mandy Xu
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe spike in VIX this month hasn't been unexpected, says CBOE's Mandy XuMandy Xu, CBOE Global Markets head of derivatives market intelligence, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) trends, the potential for rates volatility spilling into equity markets, earnings season, and more.

Persons: Mandy Xu Mandy Xu Organizations: CBOE

☆ 'Volatility could explode': The S&P 500 is ripe for a correction as tensions in the Middle East flare and inflation sticks, experts warn. Here's what to do with your money.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since late October last year, the S&P 500 has risen as much as 27% on strong economic data and excitement about AI. Losses were steepest last week when Iran fired missiles at Israel, exacerbating regional and global tensions. But as more labor market and inflation data has come out, investors now believe a cut is off the table until at least July. The S&P 500 has now dipped below its 20-day moving average, like it did last summer when yields rose above 4.35%. "The VIX, SKEW and Put/Call Ratio all indicate that sophisticated investors are on edge and volatility could explode to 52-week highs in the weeks ahead," Essaye said.

Persons: —, that's, Israel, James Demmert, Demmert, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Tom Essaye, Essaye, selloff, Solita, It's, Marcelli, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Brent, Research, Federal Reserve, LPL, MAs, UBS Americas, UBS Global Investment Locations: Iran, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen

☆ Market fear signals are flashing red as stocks pull back from record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Several major gauges of fear in the market are reflecting increased alarm from investors. @VX.1 1Y mountain The VIX over the past year At the same time, CNN's Fear and Greed Index has tipped into "fear" territory this week. Rising oil prices have also weighed on the stock market, as commodity traders bought in on expectations of escalating conflict in the Middle East. But he said the key threat to this outlook is if the conflict in the Middle East further spirals. "But, the caveat is, if things really go sideways in the Middle East, that could change the calculus."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alex McGrath, You've, Dow, Jason Heller, Heller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow, Treasury, Coastal Wealth Locations: East, Iran, Israel

☆ Options prices are rising as the market is on edge. How to use this to your advantage
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Options premiums are rising and we'll discuss how to take advantage of that by generating income through a covered call options strategy. First the consumer price index inflation data came in hotter than expected on Wednesday. The expectation had been that the pace of inflation – once those year-over-year price increases were in place — would slow in March. Since then, the "average" level of the VIX Index is 19.53. Holders could therefore look to options to potentially provide some yield if they are expecting less capital appreciation.

Persons: Warren Buffett, 28th's, Buffett Locations: Europe, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, United States, Domino's

☆ Stocks are undergoing a needed, and (so far) modest, pullback in a longer-term bull market
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The result was a 1.5-percent weekly drop in the S & P 500 , with Friday's setback exacerbated at least somewhat by a collective clenching-up of risk markets on some geopolitical worry. This dynamic hasn't been reversed, but the signal has grown a bit staticky, draining some conviction from the macro bullish case with the S & P 500 still 24% above the October low. Bull market's backdrop First, it's a bull market, and not a particularly mature or excessively generous one yet. Yet both stocks are still outperforming the S & P this year. The S & P 500 closed Friday at exactly the same level of five weeks earlier, on March 8 – which was perhaps the moment of maximum investor confidence in the "we can have it all" thesis.

Persons: I've, Jerome Powell, Powell, Wall, it's, We're, John Butters, Fastenal, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, ICE, Treasury, CPI, Fed, Grainger, Citi

☆ Wall Street heads into the week ahead on edge as traders brace for a raft of earnings, economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

How the corporate America is handling sticky inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates will be top of mind for investors in the week ahead, after this week's choppy moves. The first-quarter earnings season, which kicked off Friday, will give Wall Street insight into how businesses expect to weather an environment of elevated interest rates. More macro data, such as U.S. retail sales, will give insight into how the consumer is handling higher pricing pressures. First-quarter earnings season underway The corporate earnings season kicks into high gear in the week ahead. This week, the small cap Russell 2000 is on track for a losing week, down by more than 1%.

Persons: Bob Doll, CNBC's, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, FactSet, Robert Haworth, Haworth, Charles Schwab, Johnson, D.R, KeyCorp Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Exxon Mobil, Costco, Apple, Crossmark, Investments, Investors, Bank of America, Consumer, U.S . Bank, Index, Retail, T Bank, Housing, Manufacturing, Hunt Transport Services, United Airlines, Johnson, Bank of New York Mellon, UnitedHealth Group, Northern Trust, CSX, Discover Financial Services, Prologis, U.S . Bancorp, Philadelphia Fed, American Express, Procter, Gamble, Fifth Third Bancorp, Schlumberger Locations: America, China, NAHB, Vegas Sands, U.S, Horton

☆ Stocks Suffer Sharpest Weekly Decline of 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Joe Rennison | More About Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Stocks slumped to a second consecutive weekly loss on Friday, as intensifying tension in the Middle East prompted caution among investors, adding to concerns about lingering inflation that had set off a retreat earlier in the week. The S&P 500 fell 1.5 percent on Friday in its worst day of trading since January, and ended the week with a drop of 1.6 percent, its worst weekly decline of the year. Other major indexes, including the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000, also fell on Friday. The Vix Volatility Index, a measure of investor expectations for market swings over the next 30 days — known across trading floors as Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — was elevated. The drop this week began after an inflation report on Wednesday showed unexpectedly stubborn increases in consumer prices, throwing into doubt the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the near future as the central bank seeks to keep the brakes on the economy and further slow the pace of rising prices.

Persons: Stocks Organizations: Nasdaq, Russell, Federal Reserve

☆ Low VIX after CPI shows market complacency: KKM Financial's Jeff Kilburg
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLow VIX after CPI shows market complacency: KKM Financial's Jeff KilburgJeff Kilburg, CEO of KKM Financial, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to break down market reactions to CPI data, explain why Nvidia is 'defying gravity,' and more.

Persons: Jeff Kilburg Jeff Kilburg Organizations: KKM, Nvidia

☆ A market hedge if the S&P 500 decides to test the will of the bulls here
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 is up over 21% in the last five months, this parabolic move higher urges me to establish a hedge. I seek to protect profits and capitalize if the S & P 500 decides to reverse course and test the will of the bulls short-term. SPY 1Y mountain SPDR S & P 500 Trust (SPY) The S & P 500 is coming off a 10% gain for the first quarter, its best start to a year since 2019. However, stocks saw volatility return this Thursday as equities stumbled in an unusual trading session with a near 2% intraday bearish reversal in the SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) . In the event the market moves higher, you have defined your risk in this spread and any long equity exposure you may have to the S & P 500 should offset this trade.

Organizations: Treasury Locations: U.S

☆ Tuesday's market sell-off is what happens when stocks are 'priced for perfection,' says investor James Abate
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Some of the key drivers that drove stocks to record highs in the first three months of the year are being undermined, leading to Tuesday's sell-off, according to investor James Abate. "Stocks are priced for perfection and for them to move higher or avoid a correction you needed rates to either go down and/or profits to move higher. Outside of macro and micro data, the stock market's woes have been exacerbated by rising geopolitical tensions, Abate added. The underperformance in the Russell 2000 small-cap index means that this market selloff isn't solely contained to high-flying tech stocks. Abate manages the Centre American Select Equity Fund, which has returned 8.9% year to date compared to its category average of 9.7%, according to Morningstar .

Persons: James Abate, Abate, Tesla, Russell, Wall Street's, Morningstar Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Centre Asset Management, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Dow, American, Equity Fund, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia Locations: Syria

☆ Now is probably a good time to hedge against downside risk in the stock market. Here are 4 ways you can protect your portfolio — including 2 that are historically cheap.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But with the market at an all-time high, now is probably a good time to hedge against potential downside, experts say. That's especially the case because there's an elevated degree of risk facing stocks, and the cost of some insurance measures is historically cheap. Related storiesThe S&P 500 also looks overextended on a technical basis, according to many measures. AdvertisementRosenberg Research"The definition of a stretched market is one when the S&P 500 gaps 14% or more above the 200-day trendline. Beyond extreme, in fact — back to 1928, the S&P 500 has only drifted this far above the moving average 7% of the time," Rosenberg said.

Persons: Jim Smigiel, they've, Louis Fed, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Steve Sosnick, we're, Smigiel, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bank of America's, Survey, Bank of America, SEI, Fed, Louis Fed Inflation, MRB Partners, Rebels, Rosenberg Research, Interactive Brokers Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Suez

☆ Is it time for investors to hedge for a market decline? The pros share their views and strategies
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Last week, Goldman Sachs told clients they should start hedging for a market decline . Here's how Goldman suggests investors worried about a declining market can hedge their positions. Others also believe that it's time to start hedging — or at least take a more conservative stance. 'Shift into more value names' Top hedge fund manager David Neuhauser says it would depend on where investors are positioned right now. But he isn't a fan of hedging strategies like options, saying "over time you just end up with lower returns."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Neuhauser, that's, Russell, Neuhauser, Brian Arcese, he's, Arcese, It's, Freddie Lait, Lait Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, CNBC Pro, Livermore Partners, London, Nvidia, Foord Asset Management, CNBC, Latitude Investment Locations: Europe, U.S

☆ The Fed just made it cheaper to hedge your stock portfolio. Here's how
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-21 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

I'll explain here and provide some examples of smart options hedges to put on from here. The Fed reiterated a forecast for three rate cuts this year while signaling that they may tolerate inflation rates above their stated 2% target for a longer period. .VIX 5D mountain CBOE Volatility Index, 5 days As I write this, the VIX Index is now roughly 12.8. In the case of SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) options for example, the implied volatility of the April 30th expiration $500 strike puts, as measured by implied volatility, fell from nearly 13.9% before the Fed announcement, to about 13.5% following. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: Jerome Powell, SPDR Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Trust Locations: —

☆ Premarket stocks: Investors are on cloud nine. That could be a bad sign
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Unsurprisingly, several flashing indicators suggest that investors are feeling good about the market:• CNN’s Fear & Greed Index: The indicator, which measures seven barometers of market sentiment including the VIX, Wall Street’s most well-known measure of expected stock volatility, is in “greed” territory. Market sentiment is often seen as a contrarian indicator. That means that when the herd is optimistic, money managers take it as a sign that stocks will fall, and vice versa. A closely watched gauge of US wholesale inflation rose at its fastest pace in months, according to new data released Thursday. In February, car sales climbed 1.8%, purchases of electronics and appliances increased 1.5% and sales at restaurants rose 0.4%.

Persons: • Charles Schwab, Yardeni, “, Alicia Wallace, Price, Gus Faucher, Read, Bryan Mena Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial Services, Retail, Commerce Department, Gas Locations: New York

☆ Goldman is making a big call to clients to hedge for a market decline. Here's what it recommends
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Arun Prakash from Goldman's derivatives research team proposed an options trade focused on the Cboe Volatility Index , or "Vix," to hedge against a market selloff. .VIX 5Y mountain The Cboe Volatility Index has been trading at an unusually low level in 2024 so far. Generally speaking, a call option gives the holder the right to buy the underlying asset at the strike price, and serves as a bet that the asset will rise above the strike price. "Over the past 30+ years, VIX has averaged 19 in April, and we see upside risks to the current low VIX levels given current macro environment and upcoming macro/micro catalysts. If the Vix does not rise above the strike price before the options contract expires, the trader loses the premium paid for the contract.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Arun Prakash, Prakash, hasn't, That's, Goldman, VIX, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Reserve

☆ This market rally is taking out funds that hedged against recent investor fears
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The Simplify Tail Risk ETF , which trades under the cheeky ticker "CYA," is headed for liquidation later this month after a brutal money-losing stretch. CYA 1Y mountain Simplify's Tail Risk ETF has been beaten down by the market rally. "Tail protection, which was heavily desired in 2020, has no bids right now. And that way if you're losing money on it, and it's a tail risk ETF where you're buying a put [option], then you understand why that's happening," Armour said. "A tail risk ETF is going to go potentially over a decade without working, and that's okay.

Persons: Michael Green, Green, subpar, Bryan Armour, Armour, CYA, Philip Toews, Vix, Toews Organizations: CNBC, Fidelity, North, Asset Management Locations: North America

☆ Too far, too fast? Relentless rally worrying some we are long overdue for a significant pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The broad market index has also posted gains in 16 of the last 18 weeks — something that, according to Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid, hasn't happened since 1971. However, some on Wall Street now fear the market may have overextended itself to the upside, clearing the way for a pullback from record levels. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky also noted there's a divergence never before seen in Big Tech. Volmageddon refers to a massive volatility spike in early 2018 in which the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) more than doubled to more than 50. Bottom line: A short-term pullback in stocks could take place soon, if history is any guide.

Persons: Jim Reid, hasn't, Chris Montagu, Citi's, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Apple, RSI Locations: Big Tech

☆ A short-term trading strategy if volatility returns to the markets in March
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

I remain optimistic on markets during this election year of 2024, but here is a short-term trade strategy that profits if volatility returns and profit taking becomes a theme during the last month of the first quarter. The S & P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq each notched their best February returns since 2015, while the Dow had its best February since 2021. This is noteworthy as historically there has been "seasonal" weakness associated with February returns, due to portfolio repositioning and earnings season disappointments. With 97% of S & P 500 companies reporting actual results, investors have seen 73% of these firms exceed EPS estimates while the S & P 500 reported growth of 4.0%, according to FactSet. It is more about the opportunity I see at these overbought levels as the SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) is trading at RSI levels of 76.

Persons: Dow, Kilburg Organizations: Nasdaq

☆ Fed Chair Powell and jobs data take center stage next week as Wall Street weighs interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Next week, the first full trading week of March, macroeconomic concerns will take center stage for investors. Next week, the Fed chief is largely anticipated to stick to the same talking points in testifying before Congress. In fact, the February jobs report, due out next Friday, is expected to show a moderation in payroll gains. Hourly Earnings preliminary (February) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (February) 8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (February) 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (February) 8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (February) 8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (February) — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox and Yun Li contributed to this report.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Shannon Saccocia, Kim Forrest, Webull, Michael Hartnett, CNBC's Yun Li, Melissa Brown, Brown, Wealth's Saccocia, Saccocia, Nonfarm Payrolls, —, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox, Yun Li Organizations: Federal, Fed, Capitol, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, FactSet, Barclays, Bokeh Capital Partners, Labor Department, Bitcoin, BofA Global Research, Apple, Nvidia, Ross Stores, Costco Wholesale, Kroger, . Semiconductor, Broadcom, PMI, PMI Services, Services PMI, Ross, Target, ADP, Labor, Consumer Credit Locations: U.S, REITs, Japan

☆ The rally is showing signs of exhaustion. How to protect your portfolio if a decline is coming
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Tony Zhang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Couple this with the multiple signals for exhaustion that are typical near market tops, it warrants taking action. Troubling technical signs We've seen the SPDR S & P 500 Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) both exhibit higher highs in price while momentum and their advance-decline lines print lower highs. And lastly, these same signals are showing up across the major sectors, and individual stocks that have led this rally such as Nvidia. Overall, these are signs of exhaustion for this rally and raises the probability of a pullback. With the Wall Street's fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index ( VIX) , trading just above 13, purchasing downside protection on a portfolio using SPY options is relatively inexpensive.

Persons: Zhang Organizations: Nvidia

☆ Stocks are vulnerable to a 5% 'air-pocket drawdown' as greedy traders short volatility, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The "Volmageddon" episode happened six years ago after traders piled into a bunch of ETFs that were designed to return the inverse of market volatility (essentially betting on a calm market). And when volatility went up in February 2018, it tanked those strategies, sending the S&P 500 down more than 10% in two weeks. As VIX futures expire, the S&P 500 is seeing stronger price reactions. The short-volatility trade became very popular after 2010 when volatility was low, and traders could make money betting against market turbulence. AdvertisementIt's not a major concern right away as volatility upticks have been small, and the S&P 500 has remained resilient.

Persons: —, Tom Essaye, Essaye Organizations: Service, Business

☆ The Fed can still break markets. Here’s how
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Those gains came even as Federal Reserve officials attempted to reduce investors’ lofty expectations for a plethora of interest rate cuts this year. It is now signaling that interest rates could come this year but not until spring or summer. That means they think the Fed is keeping interest rates too high and could potentially slow down economic growth too much and risk a recession. That makes the NFL and the Super Bowl all the more valuable to advertisers trying to reach a mass market. Li-Lac Chocolates, which calls itself the oldest chocolate shop in Manhattan, told CNN that their raw chocolate prices are up 13% this February compared to a year ago.

Persons: Torsten Slok, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Olivier Darcy, Sunday’s, CNN’s John Towfighi, ”, Michele Buck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Investors, Nasdaq, Federal, Apollo Global Management, National Association for Business, Atlanta Fed, CNN, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, CBS, Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, NFL, Allegiant, NFC, Fox, AFC, Super Bowl, Companies, Hershey Co Locations: New York, There’s, Las Vegas, West Africa, North America, Manhattan

☆ A lower cost way to ride the S&P 500 if it keeps rallying to 5,100
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Of course, the volatility outlook can change on a dime but, the VIX under 13 reveals that option traders are not worried about the S & P 500 any time soon. The Trade I want to participate in more upside for the S & P 500 anticipating 5,100 to trade before 4,900. I will define my risk as the S & P 500 just popped into overbought territory when viewed through a RSI (Relative Strength Index) perspective. To reduce the cost of simply being long an at-the-money SPDR S & P 500 Trust call, I want to buy a call spread. This is calculated by adding the $4.30 (net cost) of the spread to the lower strike price of this call spread, $500.

Organizations: U.S ., JPMorgan

☆ A lower-cost way to play the S&P 500's run to 5,000
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 once again closed at a new all-time high, achingly close to 5,000 for those enamored of nice round numbers. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year Is there an option trade we can use if we're not sure? If S & P earnings grow closer to their historical average, then $240ish (let's stick to round numbers) might be a more accurate estimate. $240 a shares multiplied by 20 = $4,800 in the S & P. So in that context 5,000 is a little rich, but not much. The VIX Index , a measure of 30 day volatility in the S & P 500, is below 13, cheaper than usual.

Persons: we're, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Krugmans, aren't Organizations: Investors, Nvidia Locations: China, U.S

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